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Graph of the percentage area of the U.S. and Mexico in extreme drought, according to projections of the Palmer Drought Severity Index under a mid-range emissions scenario (SRES A1B), representing significant cuts in GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual. The red line is based on observed temperature and precipitation. The blue line, from the average of 19 different climate models, can be seen to seriously underrepresent historically observed severe drought events. The gray lines in the background are individual results from over 70 different simulations from these models. These results overall suggest substantially increasing drought over this century throughout most of the U.S. (Draft NAC p57)
Image: Draft U.S. National Climate Assessment
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